Video Credit to Sports Productions YouTube.
Michael Conforto has been a New York Met his entire career. Conforto, 27, is entering the final year of his contract with the Mets before entering free agency. There is certainly mutual interest in a deal between Conforto and the Mets, but what will it look like?
How Many Years Will He Get?
Same as Francisco Lindor, the other Met involved in extension talks this off-season, Conforto is 27 years old. He and Lindor have a very similar track record. Both players were called up in the middle of the 2015 season. Both players have been young stars over the last few years. However, Conforto has not had the consistency that Lindor had. A player who is comparable to Michael Conforto through his first seven years is Pat Burrell. Burrell’s stat line through his first 7 seasons: .258 AVG 188 HR .842 OPS. Michael Conforto’s line through his first 7 seasons (his entire career): .259 AVG 118 HR .843 OPS. Of course, baseball contracts were very different at the time. Burrell signed a 6-year, $50M contract in 2003, following his third Major League season. In 2021 dollars, it is an AAV (Average Annual Value) of $11,847,010.
With that in mind, it is important to mention that baseball contracts have developed drastically over time. Compared to 2003, teams are much more comfortable giving players a longer contract in todays game. It is very likely Conforto will get between 7-9 years, bringing him to his age 34-36 seasons. After that, if they desire, the Mets can sign him to a final contract worth 2-4 years so he can finish his career as a Met.
How Much Money Will He Get?
There are many things to consider when discussing a potential dollar amount for Michael Conforto. He has only had one year where he batted over .300, being 2020. Conforto is a player who, at his best, can hit .300 with over 30 home runs. However, he has not been able produce those numbers consistently. The potential is there, and 2020 was a season that displayed that in full force. He was on pace to hit 27 homers, as well as drive in 93 RBI’s.
Looking back at Pat Burrell’s contract of 6 years, $50M, with an AAV in 2021 dollars being $11.85M, it is tough to make a comparison. At the same point in their careers, Burrell was a clearly better player. However, this extension was signed many years before a comparable point. Obviously, Conforto is worth over $11.85M AAV. However, the common amount we see for today’s superstars is $30M AAV. Is Michael Conforto worth $30M AAV? If the numbers he put up in 2020 were his career average numbers, absolutely. However, that isn’t the case. Conforto is most likely worth somewhere between $21-25M AAV, but in today’s market he may land an extension somewhere from $24-28M.
Official Extension Prediction
Taking all of the factors above into consideration, it is clear that Michael Conforto is a good player who is worth good money for a good amount of years. My official prediction for his extension is 8 years, $216M, or an AAV of $27M.
Michael Conforto is a major piece of the New York Mets, and it would be hard for fans to picture Michael Conforto in any uniform but the orange and blue. It is highly likely that Michael Conforto will be the right fielder for the long-term with the New York Mets.
Photo Credit GettyImages Newsday LLC
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