Predictions

Mets Junkies Projections: Mad Max

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Next up is the Mets new #2 in the rotation Max Scherzer. The 37 year old future Hall of Famer will play his debut season as a Met. Will Max be part of the CY Young conversation again this year?

Rotochamp

Corné:

Most major projections sites have Scherzer at least a run higher in ERA in comparison to last year. Although I believe Max won’t pitch to a sub 2.50 ERA, I do believe he will be close to 3. Maybe even under the magic 3 mark?

Since 2015 Max didn’t have a full season with a ERA above 3, so I believe he will stay under that magic 3 in ERA. The only season since 2015 he had an ERA above 3 was the short season 2020.

The homerun ball could be an issue but Max doesn’t allow a lot of hits and walks, so it won’t hurt him as much. That will likely keep up as Scherzer hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down.

14-6, 2.89ERA, 1.01WHIP, 240K, 36BB, 5.6bWAR

Gem:

Scherzer knows the division and even if he didn’t, his talent level still trumps most. The 8x All-Star and 3x Cy Young has moved into a different stratosphere since his days with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

I expect the grizzled veteran to hit the hill just about every time out. There are few competitors out there like Max Scherzer, the man is a warrior living in the wrong century.

195IP, 17-4, 3.05 ERA, 1.03WHIP, 237K.

Next up we will do our star short stop. Will he have a better year that his first in NY?

Photo Credit: SNY

Nimmo puts a stronghold on CF; Updated Lineup.

/ Gem Tablak / Leave a comment

A couple of days ago, Corné and myself were talking about exactly this on The Mets Junkies Podcast and it looks like someone is listening. Well, probably not, but Corné confidently called it.

Like many others, I had Starling Marte slated to be the Mets opening day center fielder, at least for the 2022 campaign. However, it turns out not to be the case. Marte confirmed with reporters on Tuesday that he plans to be playing right field.

The newly acquired outfielder has been taking it light since arriving to camp, as he’s nursing a minor oblique injury. However, he has been slightly turning it up, as we get closer and closer to Opening Day.

This should come as a vote of confidence for Brandon Nimmo, as he’s made huge strides defensively. Not only will he captain the outfield, but the Wyoming native could be poised to lead off for the Mets, as well.

It’s been no secret that Brandon Nimmo is open to working on an extension that would keep him in Orange & Blue for a long while.

  1. Brandon Nimmo – L – CF
  2. Starling Marte – R – RF
  3. Francisco Lindor – S – SS
  4. Pete Alonso – R – 1B
  5. Robinson Cano – L – DH
  6. Eduardo Escobar – S – 3B
  7. Jeff McNeil – L – 2B
  8. Mark Canha – R – LF
  9. James McCann – R – C

Corné’s Cut:

As mentioned on the Podcast, playing Nimmo as our main center fielder is a no brainer to me. Here is the thing. Marte has been a solid center fielder and is definitely the more flashy outfielder to watch, I totally get that. But if you look at the metrics from last year, the younger Nimmo outplayed Marte by 1 OAA.

While that isn’t a large gap by any means, it’s worth noting that OAA is a range factored stat and with Nimmo having less Spring Speed, he still had better range. So what happens when Marte loses a step?

Another important part of this decision is that I like to want to keep Nimmo as a Met. A lot of fans want. I do believe Nimmo wants to be a center fielder and he wil leave the Mets and play center somewhere else.

Nimmo is a true center fielder and we should acknowledge that.

Photo Credit: New York Mets

Mets Junkies Projections: Polar Bear Pete

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The season is getting close and everyone loves to discuss projections. So here we go. First up we have Mets first baseman Pete Alonso. Here are some projections out from the major projections websites:

Rotochamp

Corné:

Pete had a good 2021, but to me it still felt like a down season. I expect Pete to be close to a .900 OPS in 2022. Also with guys like Nimmo, Marte and Lindor likely in front of him, I expect his RBI Total to go over 100 as well. Pete will be our main RBI guy for a lineup that looks balanced and solid on paper.

If you look at Pete his expected slash line last year, it was all higher than his slash line (.271/.377/.542). I expect him to be closer to his expected slash line with a little more power.

.265/.360/.550 45HR 110RBI 5.3bWAR

Gem:

I believe Corné’s right, fans were expecting more from the first baseman during the 2021 season. 37 HR’s is solid, however when you’re just one full season removed from 53, it could come as a let down… especially when the team isn’t racking up W’s on its way to the playoffs.

While Alonso may not yet have the protection needed directly behind him, I still see him stepping it up from last year.

.248/.355/.549 43HR 111 RBI

Next up we will predict the new Mets ace in Max Scherzer!

Photo Credit: The Apple on Twitter

Mets 2021 Award Predictions

/ Michael Garaffa / 1 Comment

Gem and I spoke recently on the podcast about award predictions for 2021. You can hear our full discussion here-

If you want to hear my in depth explanations for these picks, you can hear them on the podcast.

MVP

Francisco Lindor– This one was difficult for me to choose. It is obvious that Jacob deGrom is going to be the MVP, but I wanted to choose a hitter. I think Lindor is going to have a great 2021 with the Mets, as the end of Spring Training entails.

Cy Young

Jacob deGrom- I mean, there really is no question on this one.

Rookie of the Year

Drew Ferguson- Drew Ferguson is a name that probably won’t come to mind to most people when thinking of Rookie of the Year for the Mets. Ferguson hit incredibly well in Spring Training in 2021, and is 28 years old. His chance at a Major League career is shrinking by the year, so it may provide an opportunity for him to get a chance. 2021 is a rare year where there are no players that will be rookies entering the season for the Mets, so it would have to be a mid-season call up.

Batting Title

Brandon Nimmo- In my stat predictions for the lineup for 2021, which you can also read here- (https://metsjunkiescom.wordpress.com/2021/03/30/stat-predictions-mets-lineup/) I gave predictions for every hitter’s stats. I pegged Brandon Nimmo with a .316 batting average in 2021, which was the highest on the team. I don’t really see anyone on the Mets making a bid at the National League batting title, but it is possible if Nimmo takes off.

Home Run King

Pete Alonso- Similarly to Cy Young, this one really is a no-brainer. Obviously, it is possible that Lindor or Conforto could surpass him, but that would require a lot of variables to fall into place.

As is the case with all predictions, these are complete crapshoots. We will see how they play out, and if any of them turn out to be correct.

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Stat Predictions: Mets Rotation

/ Michael Garaffa / Leave a comment

The Mets rotation this year is going to be an interesting one. Four of the five Mets starters are slated to be there for the entire season, with Carlos Carrasco being the only question mark.

Mets Rotation

  1. Jacob deGrom
  2. Marcus Stroman
  3. Carlos Carrasco (When he returns)
  4. David Peterson
  5. Taijuan Walker
  6. Joey Lucchesi (Until Carrasco returns)

Jacob deGrom 20-6 2.33 ERA 288 K’s 0.951 WHIP

Marcus Stroman 14-12 3.49 ERA 225 K’s 1.199 WHIP

Carlos Carrasco 10-8 3.52 ERA 174 K’S 1.201 WHIP

David Peterson 13-8 3.22 ERA 194 K’s 1.155 WHIP

Taijuan Walker 12-11 3.68 ERA 190 K’s 1.245 WHIP

Joey Lucchesi 2-3 5.33 ERA 67 K’s 1.422 WHIP

The Mets rotation looks good. I think getting Carrasco back will help a lot, and will add to an already good rotation. Predicting pitcher stats is probably the most difficult thing to do, so take these with a grain of salt. That is another reason as to why I am not going to do reliever predictions, because those are even more challenging.

Mary Holt-USA TODAY Sports