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Is Pete Alonso Worth the Risk and the Money of a Long-Term Deal?

As the Mets enter another pivotal offseason, few questions loom larger than the future of Pete Alonso. The slugging first baseman, the face of the franchise since 2019, is inching closer to free agency. The debate around Flushing isn’t whether Alonso can hit — that’s been answered over and over — but whether he’s worth the risk and the money that will come with a six- or seven-year contract.

The Case for Keeping Alonso

Let’s start with what Alonso means to the Mets both on and off the field.
Since debuting in 2019, the Polar Bear has been a model of consistency and power. He leads all National League players in home runs since his debut, has multiple 40+ home run seasons, and remains one of the league’s premier run producers. Even in seasons where his average dips, his OPS and RBI totals speak volumes about his value in the middle of the order.

But Alonso’s impact extends beyond statistics. He’s become a fan favorite, a clubhouse leader, and one of the few homegrown stars the Mets have developed and kept since David Wright. Losing Alonso would send a discouraging message to the fan base — especially one that’s watched the team shift directions multiple times over the past few years.

And in the modern game, elite power simply costs money. Comparable sluggers like Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman have secured long-term deals worth between $160–200 million. If the Mets truly view themselves as a perennial contender, keeping Alonso in Queens through his prime years might be a necessary investment — not a luxury.

The Case Against a Long-Term Deal

Of course, there’s a flip side. Alonso will be entering his age-31 season by the time a new deal kicks in. A six- or seven-year commitment could keep him under contract until age 37 or 38 — not an ideal endpoint for a player whose value is tied almost entirely to power.

Unlike Freeman, Alonso doesn’t bring elite defense or a high batting average to offset decline. His on-base percentage and contact rates have fluctuated, and his defensive metrics at first base have remained below average. If the power dips even slightly, the back half of a long contract could become an albatross.

There’s also the Steve Cohen factor. While the Mets’ owner has shown a willingness to spend, President of Baseball Operations David Stearns may favor long-term flexibility over sentiment. The front office’s recent decisions — focusing on controllable pitching, youth, and financial prudence — suggest a more measured approach.

Would a seven-year, $200 million deal fit that model? Maybe not.

Middle Ground: The Compromise Path

If the Mets want to keep Alonso but limit risk, a shorter-term deal with higher annual value could make sense — something like five years, $175 million. That structure rewards Alonso handsomely while avoiding the pitfalls of his age-37 season.

Alternatively, the Mets could explore trading Alonso this offseason if no deal is reached, maximizing his value before free agency. It would be a seismic move, but not an unthinkable one for a front office focused on the long game.

Final Thoughts

In the end, Pete Alonso is the heart of the Mets — but heart doesn’t always align with logic. A six- or seven-year deal would be a risk, both financially and in roster flexibility. Yet for a franchise still searching for an identity, letting Alonso walk could be an even greater one.

If the Mets truly believe in building a culture around their stars, then Alonso — with his power, passion, and New York presence — might just be worth betting on.

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What do you think, Mets fans? Should the Mets lock up Alonso long-term, or is it time to think like a new-era front office and move on before it’s too late? Sound off in the comments below.

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