Eno Sarris and Ken Rosenthal from the Athletic wrote an article on the deadening of the baseball that is taking place starting 2021. They mentioned how there will be five more teams using humidors next season to bring the total number to ten. The other five teams that are currently using humidors are The Rockies, Diamondbacks Mariners, Redsox, and the Mets. That’s right, MLB quietly installed humidor prior to the 2020 season . Before the 2020 season, only the Rockies and Diamondbacks had humidors, but now there will be ten teams. Which five teams will be adding humidors in 2021? Currently that is not known but the addition puts the use of humidors at 1/3 of the league and with the deadening of the balls, it is safe to assume that the offensive numbers are going to take a hit next year which is bad for baseball.

What is a humidor and what does it do?

Sorry to all the cigar aficionados out there but MLB is not trying to prevent cigars from going stale in the stadiums. However, much like the humidors used for cigar storage, a humidor is a humidity controlled environment (either a box or a room but I am not sure to what MLB is using) used to keep the balls humid which adds on to the mass of the baseball. David Kagan at The Hardball Times wrote an excellent articles about the Physics of Cheating Baseball’s Humidors where he gives a great explanations as to how the physics works. The article is his theory on how teams can exploit the humidors but I do want to quote the following to help describe how a humidor works:

Controlling the temperature and humidity at which the ball is stored affects the ball’s Coefficient of Restitution (COR), which is a physicist’s way of saying “the bounciness of the ball.” The water in the air (the humidity) surrounding the ball allows water to enter or leave the ball. Hence, storing the ball in dry air (low humidity) will dry out the ball, while a ball in wet air (high humidity) will cause the ball to absorb water. So not only is a high-humidity ball less bouncy, but it weighs more as well – meaning it won’t travel as far when it is hit.

The article is worth a read as it describes a theory of how teams can use humidors to gain an unfair advantage if not regulated properly.

Why the Changes?

As a Mets fan, the timing of the humidor installation at Citi field caused me to raise an eyebrow. Why install a humidor at Citi Field the season after Pete Alonso broke the HR rookie record with 53 HR? I understand that Citi Field is supposed to be a pitcher friendly park, but the fact is that they made two changes to the parks dimensions because of the low offensive numbers it originally produced. The first change came in 2011, just two seasons after the 2009 inaugural season when they moved leftfield (4 feet) and deep-centerfield (12 feet). They also reduced the height of the home run line by 8 feet throughout the OF. In 2015 they made further changes when they reduced the centerfield and right-center walls ranging from 3 to 11 feet. The current dimensions of Citi Field (380 right-center and 370 in right) is that similar to Shea (396 right-center and 371 right) but with a shorter right-center wall. 

I believe that the peak in home runs are not solely attributed to the “juiced” balls. There has been an uptick of nerdy analytical data such as hard hit rates and launch angels in the last few seasons. The reality is that the hitters are getting smarter and taking a more scientific approach on how to bring the numbers up. Naturally you would expect that pitchers would just make the necessary adjustments to suppress the offensive surge, but now MLB is intervening to help bring those numbers down. It seems counterintuitive to me since MLB has voiced that they want to bring more excitement to the games. How would suppressing dingers equate towards more excitement?

However, it is no surprise that MLB decided to take actions after the balls were juiced in 2019. How juiced? Matt Snyder from CBS Sports does a great breakdown on putting the 2019 HR numbers into perspective. 6,776 home runs were hit shattering the previous record of 6,105 set in 2017. Snyder also mentions that 15 teams set franchise home run records that season, that’s half the league!

What to expect from the offense moving forward?

The reality is that it is too soon to tell what the changes to the construction of the baseball will translate to because there’s not enough data behind it. MLB explanation is that the changes to the balls are so minimal that it will not really make such a drastic impact, but there’s not enough data to really confirm or deny this theory yet. We will have to wait and see what happens and that is what concerns me the most! The fact that these changes are being implemented by MLB without the collection of data first smells like a failed science experiment ready to happen. You have to throw in the fact that 1/3 of the league will be using humidors on top of the fact the balls are being deaden and also factor in how the game is played today with teams shifting against batters to exploit their weaknesses. I expect offense to take a huge step back with all of these changes.

Any positives to the changes?

If you’re a pitcher throwing 95 plus MPH, you should be happy, especially if it leads to a lower Fly ball to HR ratio due to the balls having less bounce off the bat.

Players may also adjust to be more scrappy on the field. Maybe the changes will ultimately result on pulling the ball less or players looking to find that open gap to land a blooper. Strike out rates could go down as a result of less wild swinging.

In conclusion, I think that MLB needs to just stop coming up with ways to make the game unappealing and less exciting! The reality is that home runs make the game fun. If MLB wants to market itself to a younger generation, then they are taking a huge leap in the wrong direction by suppressing the offense.

What are your thoughts about the changes? Do you think its time for a change of scenery at the commissioner’s office? Are you okay with the changes? Please let me know!

(Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)