The more time that has passed, the more we know about the Padres-Mets possible trade. It’s rumored that the Mets will get Hosmer, Paddack and Emilio Pagan for Dominic Smith. The Padres will pay more than 30 mil dollar of the Hosmer 4/59 million dollar deal.
This will mean that Hosmer is owned 6-7 Mil over the next 4 years with the Mets. Emilio Pagan will be a relief arm that the Mets can use and the Mets will add starting pitching depth.
Emilio Pagan has struggled in his time with the Padres after a very successful 2019 with the Rays. He owns a career 3.73 ERA but has a 4.75 ERA over the last two years. In 2019, he pitched to a great 2.31 ERA.
Pagan is a 30 year old righty that is under control until the 2024 season. In the tweet below you can see that there might be something to work with.
According to Dennis Lin from the Athletic, the Mets and Padres have discussed a trade to acquire Chris Paddack and Eric Hosmer. In return they discussed Dom Smith heading over to San Diego.
This comes the morning after the Mets received the deGrom news. It could be a trade talked about earlier in the offseason, but with the deGrom news, it makes you wonder if the Mets will resume talks to get Paddack.
Right after the deGrom news, Billy Eppler said in an interview that the news won’t affect the Mets from looking outside the organization to fill that spot. However, that’s what every GM would say, so take it with a grain of salt.
If the Mets will try to get Paddack and Hosmer, they get an arm under control but coming off a horrendous year. The 26 year old righty pitched to a 5.07 ERA in 108.1 innings pitched. He did have a 3.78 FIP and 4.73 XERA, so he is expected to be better than his 2021 year.
Main plus with Paddack is his ability to limit walks. However, he does allow a lot of hard hit contact. That wasn’t the case in his great rookie year, where he pitched to a 3.33 ERA. After that great 2019, the Texas Native has struggled.
Even with the struggles, Chris Paddack is a young and under controlled starting pitcher. A hot commodity in the game, which will cost you. To degrees the talent in the deal, the Mets could add Eric Hosmer to relief payroll for the Padres.
Hosmer is coming off a year where he hit .269/.337/.395 over 151 games. The left handed hitting first baseman played a solid first base (69th percentile in OAA) but didn’t provide a lot of power. Hosmer does provide solid hard hit rates and doesn’t strikeout a lot. However he owned a .732 OPS and is owned 21 million dollar next year, with an opt out. If he decides to stay, he is owned 13 mil for the three years after 2022.
To give up Dom and that type of money for Hosmer and Paddack is a no go for me. Paddack has struggled and Hosmer just isn’t a good player. Both aren’t good enough to justify trading a talented player in Dom Smith and pay the contract for Hosmer. Please Mets, Don’t do this even with deGrom out.
The Mets are trying to add a starting pitcher and they might do so in a trade. The Mets have had trade talks with the Reds about Mahle (per Michael Mayer) and have done a background check on Luke Weaver (Andy Martino). This comes soon after the news that Carlos Rodon has signed with the Giants and Kershaw returned to the Dodgers.
Mahle is the bigger name of the two, after back to back very good seasons in Cincinnati. The 27 year old righty had a tremendous year pitching to a 4.9 WAR without missing any starts. He went 13-6 with a 3.75 ERA over 180 innings pitched. Worth noting is that Mahle pitched in a extremely hitters friendly ballpark half of the time and his splits show that.
Mahle main improvement is his K’s per nine over the last two. With a increased Whiff rate, he has thrived. Between 2020 and 2021, he had pitched to a 3.72 ERA/3.82FIP, 1.21WHIP with a 10.7 K per nine rate. It’s shown in his Baseball Savant page, that the righty has found his success.
Mahle has ditched his curve and now works with 3 pitches. He has a 4 seamer (-10 Run Value), Splitter (-4 Run Value) and Slider (plus 1 Run Value). Early in his MLB Career he also used a change up and cutter, but those pitches didn’t have success. Since he ditched some pitches, he has gotten better. A solid formula for Mahle.
Mahle would definitely cost prospects to get. With him having a couple of great years and some control left (Free agent in 2024), he will be costly. However, sliding that type of arm in the rotation behind deGrom and Scherzer, will make the Mets rotation one of the best in the game.
Luke Weaver is another arm the Mets have reportedly being linked too. Weaver is more of a back end arm, that gives the Mets depth and innings. The former Cardinal, has been with the Diamondbacks in recent years.
The 2014 first round pick pitched to a 4.25 ERA over 13 starts with the Diamondbacks in 2021, pitching 65.2 innings. The 28 year righty missed starts due to a shoulder strain in 2021, but returned in September with 5 starts.
Like Mahle, Weaver has two years of control left, which make the trade more costly. However, Weaver won’t cost nearly as much as Mahle.
Weaver isn’t a strikeout guy and allows some hard hit contact, however his WHIP in 2021 was just 1.18, mainly because of his low walk rate.
Over his career Weaver owns a 4.64 ERA with a 4.06 FIP. His Baseball Savant page isn’t pretty, but he isn’t a top rotation arm and won’t be as costly as mentioned before.
It depends on which route the Mets will go and how much they want to give up. Obviously Mahle is the bigger name but Weaver provides much needed depth. In my opinion a strong number three is a must, so would definitely prefer Mahle over Weaver. Either way, it will be interesting what the Mets will do to fill out their rotation the next days.
According to Mike Puma, the Mets are keeping an “eye” on Twins closer Taylor Rodgers. Rodgers coming off an All Star season, which was cut short due to a finger injury. Rodgers is set to make little over 6 mil in his final year on arbritration.
The 30 year old lefty was having a solid season until his finger started bothering him. Over 40.1 innings, Rodgers pitched to a 3.35 ERA with a career high 13.2 strikeout per nine rate. Worth noting is that Rodgers had an awful month of July before landing on the IL. Before July he pitched to a 2.61 ERA.
Rodgers is just two years away from a 30 save season. In 2019, he pitched to a 2.61 ERA with 30 saves in 60 games. Over his career Rodgers has been solid against righties (.716 OPS) and tremendous against lefties (.540 OPS). While he was the closer with the Twins, he most likely be a guy who gets the innings with lefties more for the Mets, which should improve his overall numbers.
Rodgers, a sinker/Slider guy, gets a ton of swings and misses on his slider (38.8%). His Sinker gets a -5 launch angle on balls in play, which gets him ground balls. If you get to watch Rodgers, expect a slider as he threw that pitch 54% of the time in 2021.
The Mets would need a to make a trade to get Rodgers from the Twins but not expected to be a big haul. Rodgers is set to make over 6 mil and the Twins are reportedly interested to shred some money, according to Mike Puma.