Pitchers and catchers are set to report soon. The Mets are nearly done making moves. There is some talk about adding another starter. However, the most intriguing topic is about the upgrading third base.

Based on recent reports, the Mets are discussing a trade with the Cubs for Kris Bryant. Any serious baseball fan knows that Bryant has a fantastic resume. Since being taken second overall in the 2013 draft, Cubs fans have been in love with Bryant. The three-time all-star took home the rookie of the year award in 2015. The following year Bryant was the NL MVP when the Cubs won the World Series. Besides the ring, he has helped the Cubs with the NL Central in three of his six big league seasons. The Cubs have made the postseason since Bryant entered the majors in all but one year.

Currently, the Mets have JD Davis slatted to play the hot corner. Davis was selected by the Astros in third round of the 2014 draft. He hit very well throughout his minor league career but struggled in limited playing time with the Astros. After an abysmal 2018, the Astros traded him to New York. Once with the Mets, Davis has flourished into a well above average hitter. So should the Mets trade for Bryant or stick with Davis? Let’s break it down:

The offense

Both Bryant and Davis are very good hitters. Over the first 3 years of his career, Bryant was an absolute monster. During this time, he put up a WAR of 18.0 and the talk of being a hall of famer was in the makings:

Unfortunately, in 2018, Bryant struggled and had two stints on the injured list. While, he rebounded in 2019, Bryant struggled mightily in the shortened 2020 season. Injuries were a key reason. Since the first 3 seasons, his speed seems to have decline. Bryant isn’t the same threat he was earlier in his career. His WAR is only 6.8 over this span, even when projecting what it would have been over a full 2020 season:

Davis took the opposite route. He struggled early in his days but later turned it around. His numbers show what a major transformation once in Queens:

Stat cast data

In todays game, looking merely at traditional data isn’t enough. Smart teams also look at stat cast to determine how well a player hits the ball. From the data, it seems that Davis is better than Bryant over the last two seasons:

• Barrel %- Bryant dropped from 9.3 to 5.5. Considering that 6.4 is league average, this is significant. Davis on the other hand was 11.4 and 8.9 over the same time frame.
• Exit velocity- Bryant is below the league average of 88.3. His last two seasons were 87.5 and 86.1, which is troubling. The 91.5 and 90.1 of Davis during this timeframe is pretty solid.
• Hard hit %- The average MLB player is at 34.9%, but Bryant was at 34.1% and 31.9%. Davis was at 47.9% and 45.2%, which means that he makes better contact than most players.

These numbers should be a red flag to all those who want Bryant over Davis.

The defense

This is the category in which there is no debate. Bryant is a much better defender. It isn’t close. Over his career, Bryant has a dWAR of -0.9. He is considered to be a good fielder. Over the course of his six-year career, it is estimated that Bryant cost the Cubs a mere 14 runs with his glove. In other words, he is adequate but not a gold glover.

Davis on the other hand is a butcher. His -3.1 dWAR as a Met is terrible. He has cost his team 15 runs over just four seasons when playing third. When you add in the extra 11 runs from his time in the outfield, there is no way to sugar coat it. Davis is a defensive liability.

Injuries

From 2015-2017, Bryant had been healthy. In 2018, his left shoulder began to act up. In 2020, Bryant barely played in half of the games. Between an oblique and finger injuries, Bryant was not able to help out his club. Davis on the other hand hasn’t had a single IL day as a Met. With Davis being a year younger than 29-year-old Bryant, one can’t help but think Bryant is starting to show signs of aging.

Salary & free agency

The Cubs are in the final year of arbitration with Bryant. Despite recent struggles, he will earn $19.5 million in 2021. After this season, he is entering free agency. Assuming he plays well, Bryant will earn a 9-figure salary. Davis will earn a small fraction of Bryant’s contract. He is in his first year of arbitration and will make $2.1 million. He has three additional seasons of arbitration before becoming a free agent at age 32.

With all of this in mind, what’s the verdict? Truth be told, this is a tough one. While Bryant is a recognized star of the game, his decline in offensive production is worrisome. Citi Field is not the same hitter friendly park that Wrigley is. So while defensively Bryant is the no-brainer decision, offensively Davis has the slight edge.

However, the true decision gets down to dollars and cents. Bryant is presumably a one-year rental. The Mets already have several key players entering free agency that they will want to hold onto. Lindor, Conforto and possibly Syndergaard are the players that the Mets want to extend before the season starts. If Stroman has a good season, we may want to re-sign him after the season. While Steve Cohen’s wallet adds to the Mets spending abilities, this isn’t limitless. This is especially true once we factor in that Cano’s contract is back on the books next season. Of course this all could change if the Cubs take some of the Mets bad contracts or toss in other good players. If the choice is a one for one swap of Davis and Bryant, the Mets should keep Davis.

Keeping Davis makes sense as a low-cost player who has a high upside. Not every player on a winning team needs to be a star. With this in mind, the Mets will likely need to get used to brining in a defensive replacement late in games. One possibility is to use Luis Guillorme to finish games. Hopefully, the DH will go into effect in the not too distant future and Davis can be taken off the field for good. With prospects like Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio a few years away, the Mets don’t need a long term fix like Bryant.

(David Weiss is a lifelong Mets fan. He has lived in Israel since 2008 and runs the Facebook page Jewish Mets Fans.)

There is something unfair about being a closer. If you do your job well, no one remembers you. When you fail, even slightly, it is all your fault. It is why more often then not, fans do not have fond memories of their closers.

On December 1^st, 1998 the Mets made a great trade. The Mets dealt Todd Hundley and in return got Armando Benitez and Roger Cedeno. Hundley had no place with the team. A month earlier, the Mets gave Mike Piazza a seven-year contract and he was left without a position.

Over the course of five seasons with Baltimore, Benitez had earned himself a reputation for being a hard thrower and a hothead. During a May 1998 game in Yankee Stadium, Benitez drilled Tino Martinez in the back with a fastball. Most assumed it was on purpose. It led to a massive brawl. Players were throwing punches and it even spilled into the Orioles dugout. This is virtually unheard of in baseball brawls. After the game, Orioles manager Ray Miller apologized and many of Benitez’s teammates were not happy with what he did. While it was clear that Baltimore didn’t want to hold onto him, it was only after the season that they traded the flamethrower.

The role of Mets closer at the time belonged to John Franco. Going into the season, he was just shy of 400 saves. Benitez dominated as a setup man early on. When Franco went down with a midseason injury, Benitez took the role and never relinquished it. By the end of the year, Benitez had put up arguably the best numbers the Mets have ever gotten from any reliever.  

So how good was his 1999 season? In the entire history of the Mets, there have been 36 times in which a pitcher got at least 20 saves in a season. Here is how Benitez ranked in 1999 among those pitchers.

Simply put, Benitez was unhittable in 1999. While the righty was at the top of his game in 1999, he was still great in his other years with the Mets. In five seasons in Queens, Benitez had an ERA+ of 159 and a WAR nearing 2.0 per the season. This is fantastic by reliever standards.

When compared to the top 10 saves leaders in Mets history, one can make the case that Benitez was the best closer in franchise history.

Benitez leads all Mets closers in WAR per season, ERA+, strikeouts per 9 innings, hits per 9 innings and saves per season. He was second in ERA. Even if you don’t want to call him the best closer in franchise history, he isn’t far behind.

In addition, from 1999-2003, Benitez was arguably a top 5 closer in baseball. He pitched in more games than any other closer. In fact, during this time period, Benitez was significantly better than hall of famer Trevor Hoffman.

When all is said and done, everyone knows why Benitez was hated. There are only so many times you can blow leads in a must win game before fans turn on you.

The first example of this came in 1999. In game 4 of the NLDS, Benitez came in with two on and outs in the 8^th. The Mets had a one run lead. He gave up a double to give Arizona the lead. Luckily, the Mets tied the game in the bottom half and then Pratt hit an epic homer in the 10^th for the win. Most fans would have forgotten this moment if he didn’t do it again in the NLCS. In a do or die game 6, Benitez couldn’t hold a lead in extra innings. The Mets eventually lost on the infamous Kenny Rogers walk, and the season ended.

While one can justify that Benitez was being overused in 1999, the blown saves in the 2000 postseason were far worse. Down 1-0 in the NLDS, Benitez was handed a three-run lead in a critical game 2. He promptly gave up a three-run shot to JT Snow and the Mets found themselves tied in the 10^th. With clutch hitting and a guts performance by Franco, the Mets pulled off a heart stopping win. When the Mets finally made it to the World Series, Benitez came in to close out game 1. The Mets had a one run lead, but he couldn’t hold it. The Mets never really recovered from that inning as they lost that game and later the series.

The final straw came in late September 2001. The Mets entered a three game series at Shea with the Braves. The Mets were 5.5 games out of first place. After taking the first two, the fortunes of the season seemed to have turned. A win in the finale and the Mets would have been just 2.5 games out with 12 to play. Benitez was handed a 4-1 lead in the top of the ninth. With two outs and one on, things fell apart. Benitez gave up a two-run dinger and then continued to meltdown until the tying run came in to score. The deflated Mets lost two innings later and the team was unable to get back into the race.

To conclude, we need to face the facts. Benitez was a great closer. Without him, the Mets would likely not have made the postseason in 1999 and 2000. The fact that he was lights out most of time should not be overlooked. However, the failures he had were gut wrenching. It is a sad way to be remembered.

(David Weiss is a lifelong Mets fan. He has lived in Israel since 2008 and runs the Facebook page Jewish Mets Fans.)

Last week, the Mets acquired Francisco Lindor in a trade that has the potential to go down as one for the ages. The Mets acquired arguably the best infielder of the past half-decade. As great as that part of the acquisition was, Lindor came with his longtime teammate, Carlos Carrasco.

The name Carrasco shouldn’t be new to us. His name was often mentioned as one of the tough pitchers in the Indians rotation. Kluber, Clevinger and Bieber were the names that thrown around with Carrasco. While most fans know that they are all were very good pitchers, a deep dive into the data shows that Carrasco is a fantastic pickup.

The Venezuelan born Carrasco has been very quietly one of the best pitchers since 2014. His stats over the last seven seasons are some of the finest in the MLB.

Simply put, Carrasco is a guy who can give his team 30+ starts and average around 6 innings when healthy. However, there is a better way to look at his greatness.

Since 2014, a total of 72 different starting pitchers have gotten at least one vote for the Cy Young award. Of these, only 27 have gotten votes in more than one season. It is fair to say that these are the 27 pitchers we can reasonably call the top starters of the game as they have had multiple great seasons.  So where does Carrasco stand against these pitchers. The answer is… right in the middle:

Here is the full list-

Understand what why this is critical. There are the truly elite pitchers like Scherzer, deGrom, Sale, Kershaw, Greinke, Verlander and Kluber. They have been consistently great for enough years that the only question is if they are first ballot hall of famers or not. However, once you go a level down, you will find Carrasco. He is in the group of great pitchers like Nola, Price, Cole, Lynn, Strasburg, Arrieta, Hendricks, Keuchel and Bumgarner. Carrasco has shown more consistency than pitchers like Ryu, Cueto, Severino and even Bauer. The amazing part about Carrasco is that of all the players listed here, only he and Hendricks have never made an all-star team. In other words, Carrasco is an under the radar stud.

Carrasco is the type of pitcher who would get big bucks if he were a free agent. Coming off of a strong 2020 campaign in which he put up a 2.91 ERA in 68 innings, teams would be all over him. Being that he is going into his age 34 season, he would likely have gotten about 3-4 years and about $20 million per season. However, he is on a team friendly contract. Carrasco will earn $12 million both this and next season. For 2023, he has a $14 million option with a $3 million buyout.

This means that the Mets current payroll is projected to be around $180 million. If they want to, they can still make another splashy move.

Probably the most impressive part about Carrasco’s resume is that he is a cancer survivor. He struggled in the first two months of the 2019 season. In early June, it became clear why. Carrasco was diagnosed with leukemia. Not only was his career in jeopardy, but so was his life. Carrasco made a miraculous recovery and was able to pitch in September. While his production was down, it was amazing to see that he could even throw a baseball. It is for that reason that he was the clear winner of the 2019 AL comeback player of the year and Roberto Clemente awards.

The 2020 season proved that Carrasco can pitch at the same dominant level he had in the past. However, it is reasonable to wonder how he will age. Even great pitchers typically decline in their mid-30’s. The Mets are hopeful. If he can be anything like his old self, the Mets will be more than happy.

(David Weiss is a lifelong Mets fan. He has lived in Israel since 2008 and runs the Facebook page Jewish Mets Fans.)

When Steve Cohen bought the Mets, he made several things clear. He wanted to win. In order to get there, the Mets would model themselves after teams who have achieved sustained success like the Dodgers. In addition, Cohen showed humility. At no point did he pretend that he was a baseball expert. Cohen doesn’t come from the industry and has reinforced the point that he has the same knowledge as an educated fan, nothing more. Lastly, he would spend and spend wisely.

The first move that Cohen made was to bring Sandy Alderson along. Alderson had previously been the Mets GM and was now going to serve in the role of team president. This role was previously held by Fred Wilpon’s brother in law, Saul Katz. In addition, Wilpon appointed his now hated son, Jeff, to run the team in the role of COO. Why is this important? Cohen made a clear statement that the Mets will not be run as a family business. Katz and Jeff Wilpon knew that they were not getting fired. No amount of incompetence was too much. Alderson, on the other hand, knows that he has to deliver results in order to keep his role.

Alderson has an impressive resume in baseball. However at this stage in his life, he doesn’t have the energy to run the operations. He is a cancer survivor and doesn’t need the headache of dealing with the daily grind. Rather, Alderson wants his voice heard. He put it well when saying: “I have a seat at the table, but I don’t sit at the head of the table.” In other words, he wants to be seen as someone who has insights and can share his knowledge while not being the one who makes the final call.

Alderson got his wished when he hired Jared Porter. Porter is exactly what the type of GM that smart teams hire. Despite only being 41 years old, he has worked in MLB front offices since 2004. That year he was an intern under Theo Epstein, but he worked his way up the ranks. In under a decade, Porter became the director of scouting for the Red Sox. He later spent time in the Cubs front office before becoming the assistant GM in Arizona. Porter is analytically driven and understands the value of building a strong farm system.

The Mets current front office is the polar opposite of the mess that Brodie Van Wagenen oversaw. Brodie was a sweet talker who came across as very egotistical. A month after getting the job, the inexperience GM made one of the worst trades in franchise history. He acquired his former client in Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. Cano was entering his age 36 season and still had a bloated contract after the Mariners provided some salary relief. Worst of all, the Mets traded away two first round draft picks, including the highly regarded Jarred Kelenic. Bottom line is that the Seattle robbed the Mets.

Trading away prospects became a bad habit of the Mets under Brodie. This became clear when Alderson came back and admitted that the upper levels of the minors had thinned out. Have a look at the Mets current list of top 30 prospects. Even after trading Josh Wolf (20) and Isaiah Greene (19) the vast majority of players are young. 11 of the top 17 are 20 years old or younger. Thomas Szapucki is the only relatively high prospect who is projected to enter the majors this season. While the Mets do have some good prospects, they are mainly at the lower levels.

With this in mind, the new front office made a brilliant trade. Some are hopeful that it could go down as one of the greatest in club history. The Mets got Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Indians for Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario as well as Wolf and Greene. The brilliance in this trade wasn’t just that they got one of the best players in the game. In fact it also wasn’t even that they got a pitcher who can be a strong 2 or 3 kind of guy in the rotation. It was that they didn’t destroy the future to do so. Ronny Mauricio, Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Matthew Allan, and Pete Crow-Armstrong are considered to be the Mets top prospects. Had the Mets had to trade one of them, it would have been sad but understood. You don’t get Lindor for nothing. Two of those top five would have meant that the Mets gave up a lot. However, the Mets traded none of these guys. In fact, Wolf and Greene were ranked as the 9^th and 10^th best prospects in the Mets farm system. While both have good potential, neither are currently considered to be stars in the making. Porter and Alderson were patient and they ended up with a great deal. They made a good market read.

The reason that the Mets got arguably the Mets are where they are, is because the Mets are run by professionals. The days of being petty, Nepotism and incompetence are over. The Mets have moved into the modern age. Best of all, they are taking the right steps to ensure a better future.

(David Weiss is a lifelong Mets fan. He has lived in Israel since 2008 and runs the Facebook page Jewish Mets Fans.)

With the slow offseason, I though it would be fun to start a miniseries. Throughout Mets history, there have been players who have been hated by the fans. When their names are mentioned, we cringe. However, when enough time passes, we start to realize that this hatred is unfair. The player wasn’t actually as bad as we think he was. So with this in mind, let’s roll back the clock and look out our first contestant: Jon Niese.

Niese was selected out of high school by the Mets in the 7^th round of the 2005 draft. His selection got little fanfare, as the teams big selection that year was Mike Pelfrey of Wichita State. Despite all the hype, Pelfrey struggled in Queens. In his 7 seasons with the Mets, Pelfrey underperformed as his key stats show:

While Pelfrey had good seasons in 2008 and 2010, he didn’t do much else the rest of the time. Now compare that to the lowly regarded Niese:

While neither had tremendous success, Niese was a more effective pitcher. Nevertheless, Niese seems to come off as more hated, but it was Pelfrey who was a bust.

A look at the numbers will show that Niese was an effective pitcher. While he made his MLB debut in 2008, it was only in 2010 that Niese became a full-time starter. In his first two full seasons, Niese was essentially what you would expect from a back of the rotation kind of guy. He put up a 4.30 ERA while giving the the Mets 56 starts. However, his 3.75 FIP indicated that the Mets poor defense as well as Citi Fields dimensions did not do him any favors.

Over the next three seasons, Niese was above average. His ERA was 3.40 in both 2012 and 2014. In 2013, his 3.71 ERA was pretty solid as well. In this three-year window, Niese had an ERA 3.49 and averaged 28 starts a season. Look at Wheeler by comparison. From 2018-2019, Wheeler had a 3.65 ERA and averaged 30 starts. Wheeler ended up getting a megadeal from the Phillies and Niese went on to be hated. Even if we look at Niese’s 2015 season, he had an ERA of 4.13 in 29 starts. The 2015 Mets had such great pitching that Niese was clearly the fifth man in that rotation.

So this gets down to the main question. Why was Niese hated so much? He averaged over 6 innings per start from 2010-2015 and had a 3.86 ERA. That is not bad for a back of the rotation guy. When he got traded for Neil Walker, fans were elated. Here are the 5 reasons I believe that this phenomenon exists:

Reason 1: The team was bad

When the team is losing, the abysmal level of play is magnified. Even when an individual player is good, we often have bad feelings. Niese played most of his career prior to the Mets becoming good. He is associated sub-.500 seasons. For example, who remembers the good seasons that Eddie Murray had for the Mets in 1992 and 1993? It is the problem of being a good player on a bad team.

Reason 2: Comparison to pitching stars

By the end of Niese’s tenure with the Mets, he was unneeded. Names like Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz and Wheeler represented the future of the rotation. Heck, Bartolo Colon even had a cult following. Niese was just there. He pitched and that was it. Did anyone buy a Niese jersey? Probably not too many were sold. However, every other player mentioned had the star potential Niese never had. Even if we look at the earlier years that Niese was a starter, he was never the big gun. Johan Santana and R.A. Dickey got most of the attention.

Reason 3: The Madoff effect

The years Niese was a key starter, the Wilpon’s were not spending money to improve the team. When a big free agent hit the market, you could rest assured that the Mets were not interested. Due to the Madoff fiasco, the team had to rely on cheap talent. That was literally what Niese represented. He wasn’t a bad pitcher, but the Mets needed more. In many ways Niese was the symbol of the impoverished Mets.

Reason 4: Men on base

This could be why so many people didn’t like watching Niese pitch. It could be painful. Whenever Niese pitched, it seemed like baserunners were always on. He was in and out of trouble. In 2010, 2011 and 2013, his WHIP was over 1.400 on the season. He averaged over a hit per inning during his career with the Mets. So while Niese didn’t give up many homers, he frequently appeared to be one pitch away from being yanked from the game.

Reason 5: 2016 left a bad taste in our mouths.

The 2016 season saw multiple disastrous injuries to the pitching staff. Wheeler never came off the DL. Harvey was a tragedy. By September, Matz and deGrom were out for the season. When the Mets reacquired Niese in a trade with the Pirates, the hope was that he could return to his old form. Sadly, he was a nightmare and his career never got back on track.

When all is said and done, we should cut Jon Niese some slack. He was a respectable pitcher who had the misfortune of playing at the wrong time. Hopefully, Mets fans will one day look back at him and appreciate what he did for the team.

(David Weiss is a lifelong Mets fan. He has lived in Israel since 2008 and runs the Facebook page Jewish Mets Fans.)