Free Agent Target: Jon Gray

The Mets lost out on Steven Matz, which had some bad blood between Steve Cohen and the Mets and Matz and his agent. In the end, it’s time to move on and the Mets need to act in the quick moving starting pitching market. Billy Eppler said on MLB Network that the Mets have discussions with a lot of starting pitching and Jim Morrosi followed with a tweet that Jon Gray will likely sign soon. Mets and Jon Gray talking? I think so.

The 30 year old righty was a first round pick (3rd overall) in 2013 for the Rockies and has pitched his entire career with the organization. Gray pitched to a 4.59 ERA over 829.1 innings in his career, pitching at Coors Field half of the time.

Aces of the staff 2nd coming

In 2021, his ERA was equal to his career ERA at 4.59, but worth noting is that in the last two months, his ERA went from 3.67 to 4.59. That could be because of fatigue after the short 2020 season?

It’s also no surprise with pitchers for the Rockies, that they have to adjust to pitching in high altitude. While Gray had a better home ERA than Road ERA, you still have to adjust your way of pitching. Gray throws a 4 seam fastball, Slider, curve and change-up. His slider is his best pitch, getting minus 13 run value, while his fastball got hit hard (16 run value).

The Baseball Nerd

Overall his numbers are around league average. His XERA was 3.98 in 2021. In most years Gray his expected ERA was lower than his ERA, which could indicate a better performance outside of Coors Field. Another thing to note is that Gray his Fastball has solid velo but bad spin rates, which again, can be explained thanks to high altitude at Coors.

Baseball Savant

MLB Trade Rumors has Jon Gray signing for 4 years at 56 million dollars. If the Mets sign him, he would likely be the Matz type move for the Mets. Probably not the biggest arm to add this offseason, but a solid mid rotation arm.

I am very curious what Gray can do outside of Coors. I think his overall numbers would definitely get better and for that mid-back rotation spot, he has my preference. Upside is definitely there with Gray.

Gray is expected to sign next week, so the answer to the question if he becomes a Met, could get an answer soon.

Pitching Ninja

Photo Credit: theScore MLB

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