One of the most common names in the game today when discussing free agents remaining is Shane Greene. Here is why the Mets should take a chance.

Shane Greene. Why hasn’t he been signed yet? Why has he really had no talk about him this off-season? Should the Mets sign him?

All incredible questions, and I don’t really have any answers for you. What I can provide are facts and opinions.

Why Hasn’t he Been Signed Yet?

This is probably the best question people have been asking. Arguably one of the best relievers in baseball in 2020, who at this point can probably sign for dirt cheap. However, something we have seen all off-season is that the reliever market it just not there. The only reliever who got a good contract was Liam Hendriks, and even he was somewhat under-paid. Alex Colome signed a cheap contract with the Twins after being a top 50 player in 2020. Jeremy Jeffress signed a Minor League contract after putting up a 1.54 ERA last year. Relief pitching is probably the second-most underwhelming positions in baseball today, behind catcher, which should lead to great players getting great contracts.

I know it is strange, but compare this to JT Realmuto. Realmuto signed a record contract with the Phillies. He is possibly the best catcher in the game and got a contract relative to the talent that is seen at that position today. Not only is he potentially the best player in a position that is severely weak in talent, but he has struggled the last few seasons. He still got paid.

Back to Shane Greene. Oftentimes when there is a question about whether a player should be paid or not, it comes from their past in the game. Normally those players had one great year, but otherwise struggled. Shane Greene has not had that in his time. Since 2017, Greene has a combined 3.25 ERA in 221 IP, as well as a 1.197 WHIP in that time. Those are very good numbers. In that same time, Liam Hendriks had a 2.86 ERA in 198 IP, as well as a 1.079 WHIP. Hendriks clearly has better numbers, but he also has more than 20 less innings thrown that Greene. Hendriks has been much more reliable the last two seasons, posting an ERA under two those years. That doesn’t take away that Shane Greene has been very consistent and good.

Simple answer- no idea why he hasn’t signed.

Why Has There Been Little Talk Surrounding Him?

This is a question that only MLB front office’s can answer. My main guess is because of these numbers. Before you read the chart, answer this question in your head- is Shane Greene a strikeout pitcher or does he pitch to contact?

The number that really stands out to me is his K%. We are living in the world of the strikeout. If you’re not striking somebody out, you better be playing like Kyle Hendricks. He pitches to contact, and most people probably didn’t even know that before reading this article. To be honest, I didn’t even know that before I began this. That is the number I think people are scared of. He doesn’t strike out the world, and he really doesn’t strike out much of anyone. He had a K/9 of 6.8 in 2020, which was among the leagues worst. In a world where people are expecting to see strikeouts from pitchers, that could potentially be a main reason why Greene hasn’t gotten much chatter.

My guess- strikeouts are a major reason.

Should The Mets Sign Him?

This is the age old question. The interesting thing for the Mets is that they bullpen is filled primarily with strikeout guys. Headlining that group are: Dellin Betances, Miguel Castro, Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, and Trevor May. The Mets don’t really have a reliable pitch-to-contact guy in the bullpen at the moment. Aaron Loup is going to be the main lefty-on-lefty pitcher, Jacob Barnes isn’t proven yet, Seth Lugo is currently hurt, and the rest is really up in the air. The main pitcher that comes to my mind as the current contact guy is Robert Gsellman. In 2019, he was in the 41st percentile in K%, so it is clear that he is a guy that relies on the defense. However, Gsellman isn’t necessarily reliable anymore as the player he once was.

This means that Shane Greene would slot in right away as the main pitch-to-contact guy in the Mets bullpen. It is important to have a guy on the team that you can call in and get a double play, and right now I would probably say that Jeurys Familia is that guy.

Familia and his sinker is going to be something to watch in 2021. The main question is will that sinker get swings and misses, soft contact, or hard contact. When he’s at his best, he is going to get swings and misses, but a soft contact pitcher is always welcome for a guy that is no longer the closer. If Familia is going to be a contact pitcher, then the need for Greene is sharply lower. However, Familia is getting strikeouts at a very high rate in Spring Training so far.

The way things stand at the moment, the Mets do not have a soft contact pitcher in their bullpen. It seems like signing Greene would be a major boost to a questionable, and quite literally hit or miss, bullpen. I believe signing Greene could be very beneficial, but I would approach with caution.

Photo Credit David O’Brien The Athletic