Nolan Arenado, the great third baseman who has played all his career in the extremely hitters friendly Coors Field. With the current financial situation, there is every reason to believe that the Rockies want to unload Arenado and his contract. Especially after a bad short season in which he’s lost a ton of trade value. It’s worth noting that Arenado has a full no trade clause, but I can only imagine that he wants to leave the Rockies organization.
According to BaseballTradeValues.com, Arenado has a negative value off 43.7, which shows Arenado can be had without adding any big name players. You might even be able to add another important need in an Arenado trade? How about trading for Freeland with him coming to Queens and trade away a bad contract (Familia) in the same deal?
While I think Arenado‘a negative value is too much on BaseballTradeValues, I can still see this type of trade happening. If you look at the values, the Mets still have 23.8 negative value left. That means Rockies could/should add money and/or a prospect. The Rockies could be desperate to shed money and Arenado’s contract is atrocious (5/$164M), giving him that huge negative value.
Also read: MLB Trade Rumors Predictions
So why take on Arenado his huge contract after a bad season? One word, DEFENSE. Arenado just won a platinum glove after receiving his ridiculous 8th gold glove, in his 8th season. No doubt Arenado is the best defensive third baseman in the game, at least while watching play third. Arenado is in the 99th percentile in OOA in the game, which shows he is one of the best defensive player in the game. Having that type of glove behind you, makes your pitchers perform better. We have seen how bad our defense has been and Arenado would be a major upgrade over Davis at third.
Arenado and his bat has been a major concern. In 2020, Arenado owned a .738 OPS, with half of his at bats and games in Coors Field. He has an expected slash line of .236/.303/.389, which is terrible. However, his expected OBP in years before were in the top 6% in every season of his career. So, he should still be able to get on base. The power could decline as his home field won’t be Coors Field, as seen in his career road numbers (.263/.322/.471). I believe it’s fair to expect these type of numbers from Arenado.
Also read: Four non tender candidates
Going forward, you add a guy who improves your defense drasticly, but is expected to be a slightly below average hitter with a huge contract. Hence getting another piece (I keep saying Freeland) of the puzzle, plus shredding a contract of your own.
I’m not a fan off adding big contracts and these type of deals are hard to finalize. It would be a constructed deal where you get Arenado but add more value in another player (can’t mention this enough).
In my next article, I will write about Kyle Freeland, who I like to add in this same deal.
Also read: Mets Trade Target: Ramon Laureano
Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Credit values: Baseballtradevalues.com with help from Josh Hartman